Poll: Hogan competitive or better in Senate run

Following Larry Hogan’s surprise announcement that he’s entering the race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Ben Cardin, Emerson College is out with a poll showing him tied with potential Democratic opponent David Trone at 42 percent, and with a six-point lead over the other Democratic candidate, Angela Alsobrooks.

Hogan will first have to get through the Republican primary, with a very different GOP electorate than the one that first nominated him in 2014. The poll shows 43 percent of Republican voters saying they intend to pick him in the primary, tied with another 43 percent saying “undecided,” a measure of the distrust much of the Maryland GOP base now harbors toward the former governor. During his eight years in office, his popularity rating among Maryland Republicans — as with independents and Democrats — routinely topped 70 percent. But as the 2022 primary win of Hogan-loathing Del. Dan Cox showed, you can’t assume that the group that in fact comes out to vote in Republican primaries reflects any sort of generic party profile.

Fortunately for Hogan, the Republicans he’ll be facing appear to be anything but strong contenders. The closest second to Hogan’s 43 percent in the Emerson poll, at 6.2 percent, is disbarred perennial candidate Robin Ficker. John Teichert, a retired Air Force general who’ ha’d been seen as making a bid for the race’s pragmatist lane, promptly pulled out and endorsed Hogan.

Turning to the November general election, the poll has ominous news for Joe Biden. In 2020 Biden beat Trump by 33 points in Maryland, roughly matching the recollections of the group polled this time. This time around, however, those polled split for Biden in a two-man race by a less impressive 22 percent, which shrinks to only 15 percent when third party candidates Kennedy, Stein, and West are added as alternatives. At least in this snapshot, Biden is running less strongly in Maryland than he did four years ago, and the third party candidates almost exclusively are hurting him.

Returning to Hogan’s prospects for Senate in November, how do the crosstabs look? Glad you asked.

Against Trone, Hogan dominates 63-20 among voters who think Maryland is headed in the wrong direction and wins independents 48-25. Trone leads among Democrats 65-24, while Hogan, for all the frictions he has had with the GOP base, beats Trone 75-8 among Republicans with 17 percent undecided, perhaps a reflection of Trone’s reputation as a strong liberal. Trone easily wins those who believe Maryland is on the right track, 62-28. Trump voters break for Hogan 73-11, while Biden voters go for Trone 66-23, and presidential undecideds go for Hogan 42-22.

On ethnicity, Hogan leads among whites 49-36 and Hispanics 48-42, while Trone leads among blacks 55-27 and Asians 46-42. Hogan’s strength among Hispanics is particularly striking, given that many pundits have treated the Latino drift toward the GOP as mostly a regional phenomenon of states like Florida and Texas, with little relevance to the Northeast.

On age, Trone leads among under-30s at 46-29 and over-70s at 49-40, while Hogan’s strongest group is voters in their 40s at 46-36. On education, Trone’s strength again follows an hourglass outline, running 53-37 among those with postgraduate education and 56-29 among those with vocational training, while Hogan leads among college and community-college grads and carries high school grads 45-34. For all the gender differences in other parts of American politics, there is almost no difference between male and female voters in Hogan/Trone preference.

How do the numbers change if Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, rather than David Trone, is the Democratic nominee? What voting shifts net out to yield the six-point swing toward Hogan?

Alsobrooks, who is African-American, runs only a few points stronger than Trone against Hogan among black voters as well as slightly stronger among Hispanic voters, perhaps in part because more Hispanic voters live in Prince George’s County than in Trone’s congressional district. But she scores significantly worse among both white and Asian voters, moving to a 38-47 deficit with the latter group. Postgraduate voters also swing hard against the P.G. executive, with Hogan taking a plurality lead among them, as do voters with vocational education. Among other demographic categories, Alsobrooks runs stronger than Trone among under-30s, but worse among all other age groups, and also has trouble with female voters, among whom Hogan takes a 45-35 lead as compared with a five-point lead among men.

Comparisons between surveys done by different pollsters should always be taken with a grain of salt, but a mid-November poll cited by Pamela Wood of the Baltimore Banner in December found Trone leading Hogan 49-34 in a hypothetical matchup. “The survey of 813 likely voters was commissioned by Blended Public Affairs and Annapolis lobbying firm Perry, White, Ross & Jacobson LLC in mid-November.” It definitely looks tighter than that now.

It’s long past time to defund CASA

CASA, the political machine/lobby/immigrant social services grantee that has long been a major player in the state’s politics, is 1) drastically to the left of most Maryland residents, whether immigrant or native-born; and 2) receives bountiful assistance from state and county taxpayers that we should recognize as inconsistent with its intensely political cast. Taxpayers whose opinions are at odds with CASA’s shouldn’t be forced to support an organization of its strident ideological coloration. Yet they are.

Many elected officials in Montgomery seem belatedly to be noticing this following the November 6 statement by CASA Executive Director Gustavo Torres weighing in on the Israel-Hamas war. Sample: “we strongly support the struggle for decolonization, affirming the rights of Indigenous peoples and historically colonized nations to reclaim their land. The Palestinian struggle mirrors our own.” Social media output from CASA the same day made clear that this was an organizational stand, not just a personal one by Torres.

A firestorm has resulted. Every member of the Montgomery County Senate delegation signed a letter denouncing the CASA statements, and several members of the Montgomery County Council have done so too.

Well, better late than never. The radical nature of CASA’s ideological commitments have long been plain for anyone who cared to look, as has been its willingness to break the law in the course of its demonstrations (without facing any legal consequences, of course).

Nearly two-thirds of CASA’s revenue, it turns out, comes from government. Most of us are aware of its extensive contracts to administer social services. But there is much, much more, as revealed by Adam Pagnucco’s research. Take this sweet little deal it got thanks to MoCo County Executive Marc Elrich:

Last year, County Executive Marc Elrich asked the county council to approve a 99-year lease for CASA at “a nominal sum” for a county-owned building at 14645 Rothgeb Drive in Rockville.  The council did so unanimously and waived the requirement that the lease be made at fair market value.  On top of that, the council approved Elrich’s request for $5 million in capital money for improvements to the building.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg.  CASA has received support from other governments over the years including Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Prince George’s County, the State of Maryland, Fairfax County, the State of Virginia, the federal government and more.  The Washington Post reported that it received a $1.5 million donation from Hugo Chavez’s Venezuelan government in 2008.

Pagnucco also points out that although formally comprising several entities with differing tax statuses and degrees of latitude to lobby or back candidates, CASA is not exactly fastidious about keeping these lines straight in practice, as when it proclaims frankly that it is lobbying on this or that issue this week.

Every experienced elected official in Maryland has good reason to know about CASA’s multiple roles and none has grounds to be surprised at the quick-change artistry by which the social services contractor at 10 a.m. seamlessly morphs into an organizer of illegal demonstrations at noon, a political kingmaker at 2:00 p.m., and a bare-knuckle lobbyist at 4 p.m.

Time to call a halt to this charade — and the sooner the better.

Grading Maryland’s redistricting performance

A new 50-state survey of redistricting released by Common Cause favorably contrasts the work of the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission with that of the competing panel set up by the legislature to draw districts.  

In an account for Maryland Matters, Bryan Sears quotes Dan Vicuña, national redistricting director for Common Cause: “‘Maryland is an unusual case,’ said Vicuña. ‘…Having a governor of a different party produce less partisan maps did play somewhat of a role in the outcome of writing some options for a court when congressional maps were struck down as a violation of the state constitution.’” That’s interesting because it draws a direct line from the work of our commission to the later court review, culminating in an impressive decision by Judge Lynne Battaglia, that was to result in the adoption of an alternative plan with fairer, less partisan and more compact Congressional districts. 

Report: Maryland receives C grade for legislative, congressional redistricting

The Common Cause report can be read here (see p. 42). Among highlights:

Advocates noted that the governor’s commission managed to draw more majority-minority districts than the legislature did.

[They also] noted that while there were marked improvements in transparency and engagement in the legislative redistricting process over the 2011 redistricting cycle, the state legislature still drew lines largely behind closed doors, whereas the governor’s advisory commission had public deliberations as they drew maps. Therefore, although both the state legislature and the governor’s commission took public input across the state, the map-drawing by the state legislature that was ultimately adopted was not done publicly. The state legislature also gave very short notice to the public about when their hearings were taking place, provided minimal public education and information dissemination, and provided the public with no justification as to how their maps were drawn and no details on who worked with them to draw their maps.

The report also includes a memorable quote from Joanne Antoine of Common Cause Maryland about the General Assembly’s speedy adoption of the insider-drawn maps: “People are disengaged because they know their feedback will receive very little consideration… Common Cause MD is taking no position because the outcome is preordained.”

That preordained result was alas to govern the state’s adoption of legislative districts, even as thanks to Judge Battaglia’s courageous decision the revision of Congressional districts was to be placed on a better path.

We give a party for ranked choice voting

We had a grand time hosting a party this month here in Frederick County to introduce friends, neighbors and interested onlookers to ranked choice voting and how it works. Despite a rainy forecast a diverse crowd of more than fifty assembled to participate in what turned out to be a surprisingly close three-round contest for which of five home-baked cookies was the crowd favorite, with oatmeal finally winning in a tiebreaker against a strong finish by ginger snaps. Photo by Kat Murti, Instagram. 

About half the RSVPs were from Frederick County and half from away, with pretty much every point on the political spectrum represented, including neighbors, people active in Maryland politics and civic life, think tankers, and friends. Among highlights were remarks from FairVote founder Cynthia Richie Terrell.

That’s not the only way RCV, as it’s called, is on the move locally. The city of Frederick’s charter review committee last week announced its recommendations for changes in how the city is governed. [Final draft report here.] To quote Ryan Marshall of the Frederick News-Post:

The committee said the city should give “serious consideration” to implementing ranked-choice voting in future city elections. The city’s Board of Supervisors of Elections should be consulted and help the city leadership figure out the best approach for implementing ranked-choice voting….

[At present the approved ballot systems] can’t process ballots that use ranked-choice voting, committee member Stuart Harvey said after Thursday’s meeting….

If Frederick moved to ranked-choice voting, the city may not be able to get assistance from Frederick County, and may have to operate and tally its own votes until the state acquires a system that can accommodate the practice, Harvey said.

The committee’s recommendation also calls for the city to “advocate to state election officials and to the Maryland Legislature that tools and/or legislation be created to permit implementation of [ranked-choice voting].”

And mark your calendars: on Nov. 29 the Frederick County chapter of the League of Women Voters will host an education forum on ranked choice voting for the general public. I’m slated to be a panelist, along with Stuart Harvey and others.

City of Frederick should consider ranked choice voting

I enjoyed presenting to the City of Frederick charter review committee on the case for ranked choice voting, alongside Jeremy Rose of FairVote. From Ryan Marshall’s coverage in the FNP:

Ranked choice voting provides more information about voters’ real preferences, said Walter Olson, a New Market resident who served as co-chair of former Gov. Larry Hogan’s Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission.

It also helps prevent third-party candidates from intentionally or accidentally siphoning off support from other candidates, he said.

A former Republican who is now unaffiliated, Olson said some in his former party have spread misinformation about how ranked choice voting works. But Republicans could expect to do just as well under a new system in areas where they are popular, he said.

Ranked choice voting has sometimes drawn suspicion from the left because it’s a way to nominate more centrist Democrats, he said.

So far in Maryland, Takoma Park is the only municipality that uses ranked choice voting, Olson said.

But there has been interest from communities around the state, including in Prince George’s and Howard counties, he said.

He warned the committee against trying to put too many restrictions on ranked choice voting into the charter, recommending that details be left to the city clerk, who administers the city’s elections.

Keeping them out of the charter would make it easier to make a change if it’s clear that something isn’t working properly, he said.

Howard County delegation stages bizarre BoE power grab

Update Feb. 13: bill dies after county delegation leadership declines to introduce it [Maryland Reporter]

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HoCoWatchdogs, in November:

In their 2023 Proposed Local Legislation, the Howard County State Delegation has proposed a bill (Ho. Co. 10-23) that will disenfranchise Howard County voters by giving the Howard County Executive the right to bypass the electoral process and directly appoint two HCPSS Board of Education members every four years.…

The Howard County Executive would appoint these two “from a list of candidates provided by the Howard County State Delegation to the Maryland General Assembly.”

That sounds like an old-fashioned power grab, with the Assembly delegation seeking to muscle into control of what had been up to the county’s voters. The bill would cut short the terms of two existing elected members so as to replace them with appointees. The chairs of the delegation, incidentally, were Senator Clarence Lam and Delegate Courtney Watson.

In fact the scheme was even more cockamamie. Rather than have the remaining ordinarily elected members of the Board run in apportioned districts, as now, it would have had them be elected by state senate district — increasing the likelihood that the members of the legislative delegation could put pressure on them, perhaps by threatening to “de-slate” them if they didn’t cooperate.

Bear in mind that state senate districts routinely spill across county lines; the boundaries of one current senate district lie entirely within Howard County, while two others are shared with Anne Arundel County and Montgomery County.

This means that the three members elected from senate districts would represent electorates of three completely different population sizes. Yet they’d each get an equal voice on the board, in defiance of the Supreme Court’s longstanding “one person, one vote” guidance.

A widespread public furor ensued. Aside from the sheer audacity of the move — evidently based on the notion that board of education governance was too apt to go the ‘wrong” way under simple representative democracy unless guided from above by seasoned pols — it hardly accorded with the rhetoric of democracy that prevails in the state generally and Howard County in particular.

Proponents are talking about a “cleaned up” version of the bill that would fix some of its most glaring problems. But for reasons pointed out by HoCoWatchdogs, the sponsors have at this point earned the voters’ distrust.

P.S. Here’s an update by Frank Hecker, who points out an additional difficulty with basing school board districts on senate districts: since the latter sprawl across county boundaries, “it’s possible that four of the members of the ‘Howard County’ delegation may not even live in Howard County. What business would they have picking candidates for the Howard County Board of Education?”

And Hecker brings a bit of much brighter news: Dels. Chao Wu and Jen Terrasa (both D, as are Sen. Lam and Del. Watson) have introduced Ho. Co. 16-23, a bill authorizing the county to use ranked choice voting to elect members of its board of education. That’s more like it!

The election morning after

Post-election thoughts.

Nationally, Republicans came in far short of their hopes and what would be expected for the out-party in a midterm, especially one with high public discontent over issues like inflation. It’s still unclear whether they’ll take even the House, let alone the Senate. While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and New York Republicans had a good night, figures promoted by MAGA-world crashed in flames in one competitive race after another, from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin to Arizona.

Statewide, as expected, the Democratic ticket in Maryland cruised to an easy win against the likes of Dan Cox and Michael Peroutka. Two Republican candidates I did like, Barry Glassman (Comptroller) and Allan Kittleman (Howard County Executive), ran well ahead of those two but still lost by wide margins.

Here in Frederick County, Republicans have jumped off to a strong lead based on combined Election Day and early voting tallies. But most mail ballots will not be counted until Thursday and later, and those votes are likely to enable Democrats to catch up and overtake them in a number of races. The number of mail ballots left to count stood at 16,164 as of Wednesday afternoon but could go even higher, and most will break for Democrats. Among the strongest R countywide candidates, Michael Hough (CE) is currently ahead by 8,798 votes, Sandy Dalton (Clerk of the Court) by 12,594, and Chuck Jenkins (Sheriff) by 11,255. [NUMBERS CORRECTED AND UPDATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON] If Democrats catch up by 6,257, they could take both council at-large seats, while a shift of 8,706 would potentially let them shut out conservative challengers from taking at least one school board seat.

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A few observations:

I think the country is better off if the Biden administration is held in check by losing control of at least one House, even if narrowly. I also think voters should reject candidates who wouldn’t have certified the 2020 election, who spread conspiracy theories, or who are extremist nutballs generally. While many votes remain to be counted, voters might manage to thread the needle to achieve both these goals. Rep. Lauren Boebert is even behind in her race in Colorado!

Election reform appears to have had a good night, with Final Five/RCV reform ahead in Nevada, ranked-choice voting winning everywhere I’ve seen so far, and Alaska’s RCV working smoothly (expect a return to Washington for Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Democratic Rep. Mary Pertola.)

As for the Republican Party, I put it this way last night:

If you want a functional conservative party in this country, fire the MAGA crowd, freeze out the Entertainment Wing, and recruit competent candidates of good character.

Dan Cox as “Constitutional Attorney”

On January 6th, 2021, Maryland Del. (and now gubernatorial candidate) Dan Cox infamously tweeted “Pence is a traitor.” Brian Griffiths has a few things to say about that in a new Duckpin post this morning, but I wanted to add a further thought of my own.

Dan Cox styles himself a “Constitutional Attorney.” The problem here is not that there’s anything wrong with being a constitutional attorney — quite the contrary! — but that, on the available public evidence, Cox simply isn’t a very good one. His apparent notions of how the U. S. Constitution sets forth the presidential succession process proved embarrassingly wrong, which is why not a single federal judge or state legislative chamber was willing to go along with his side in January 2021, any more than Mike Pence was. His notions of how state and local public health powers fit in with constitutional law, again, are at variance with those of Justices Alito, Thomas and Gorsuch, not just those of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.

If nominated, Cox would continue to run around Maryland making untenable claims about constitutional law, but now as his party’s official standard-bearer. And he would drag the Maryland Republican Party down to ignominious defeat in November.

Jim Shalleck deserves nod in GOP AG primary

Amid other interesting primary battles it’s easy to lose sight of the one for the Republican nomination for Maryland Attorney General. But it’s important. Everyone in favor of a sane and relevant GOP should back Jim Shalleck of Montgomery County, an experienced prosecutor who’s campaigning primarily on the crime issue. Shalleck’s primary opponent is the appalling Michael Anthony Peroutka, the “wackypants theocracy buff” (as I’ve called him) whose crank constitutionalism and bizarre views on “Biblical law” I’ve written about for years.

Jim Shalleck is a credible figure who’d be an asset to a statewide Republican ticket. Michael Peroutka is working the Dan Cox circuit while somehow managing to be even more extreme than Cox himself. It shouldn’t even be a contest, but in today’s political atmosphere, you never know.

Cox’s Hogan suit bombs out at Fourth Circuit

I’ve written a new piece at Maryland Reporter on last month’s ruling by a federal appeals court confirming the demise of Del. Dan Cox’s suit against Larry Hogan claiming that the governor’s emergency COVID-19 orders had violated the law and the constitution. A few excerpts:

“Then there were the signs of hasty lawsuit drafting… One subhead in the original filing cited ‘Irreparable Injury To Plaintiffs From Governor Northam’s Gathering Orders,’ comically echoing a suit filed earlier in a different state – Virginia — against Gov. Ralph Northam.”…

“The suit was decked out with rhetorical flights and what you might call ambitious theories of constitutional law, such as that [Gov. Hogan’s pandemic] orders had had the effect of depriving Marylanders of a republican form of government. As the appeals court noted last month, Cox’s subsequent briefing did not go on to argue the merits of many of these theories, leaving Judge Blake free to dismiss them without discussion….

“Del. Cox will undoubtedly continue to work the campaign trail making strongly worded claims about the U.S. and Maryland constitutions as he understands them. Just remember that the actual federal courts keep making it clear that his ideas about the Constitution are not theirs.”

I covered the initial dismissal of Cox’s suit two years ago for the Frederick News-Post.