Analyzing the Frederick County vote

The unofficial precinct results for Frederick County in the primary election are now online which affords a chance for an initial look.

TURNOUT. 23% overall. Ignoring very small precincts, that ranges from a low of 9.30% at Cornerstone Fellowship Church on Waverley Drive in Frederick to a high of 29.57% at Talley Rec (Baker Park). Turnout rates below 18% were mostly seen in in-town neighborhoods in Frederick but also included Spring Ridge at 16% and 17%, Oakdale at 17%, and one of Urbana Library’s two precincts at 13%.

GOVERNOR. On the Democratic side, Anthony Brown easily bested Heather Mizeur and Doug Gansler 45-25-24 (Gansler ran third in Frederick County, though second statewide). Gansler carried Thurmont. Mizeur carried Brunswick Middle and Burkittsville and ran competitively in affluent/hip downtown precincts in Frederick. On the Republican side, Larry Hogan beat David Craig, Ron George, and Charles Lollar 39-23-21-17 in that order. Hogan and Craig had reasonably even support. George ran well in the city of Frederick and carried some precincts there, quite possibly because of the boost given by running mate and former Frederick alderman Shelley Aloi. Although a key tenet of the Charles Lollar campaign is the idea that he can bring black voters over to Republicanism, Lollar in fact did not run strongly in precincts such as Hillcrest and Lincoln with many black voters. Instead, his strongest support came from outlying, mostly Eastern parts of the county: New Market, Mount Airy, Urbana, Thurmont, and Emmitsburg. Most of these are in the 8th Congressional District, where Lollar running mate Ken Timmerman may have benefited from support built during his 2012 Congressional bid.

ATTORNEY GENERAL. As he did statewide, Democrat Brian Frosh well outdistanced Jon Cardin, with large majorities at relatively well-educated precincts such as Talley Rec, Braddock Heights, and Linganore High. Third-place finisher Aisha Braveboy, at 13%, ran strongest in Hillcrest and Cornerstone at 27% but not strong enough to carry those precincts.

STATE SENATE DISTRICT 4. Sen. David Brinkley lost 32-68 to challenger Michael Hough and there were no bright spots for him: he lost every precinct, his best showings being 3-to-2 losses on his home turf of New Market. In combined Urbana precincts, Hough’s percentage came near a staggering 80 percent. (Part of the district lies in Carroll County and will not be considered in this post.)

HOUSE OF DELEGATES DISTRICT 3B. While newcomer Darren Wigfield ran competitively in parts of the district, he could not overcome former Sheriff candidate Bill Folden’s strength in close-in Ballenger Creek, Tuscarora, Crestwood, and Orchard Grove, as well as Adamstown.

HOUSE OF DELEGATES DISTRICT 4. Incumbent Del. Kathy Afzali ran first at 28 percent, her strongest precincts Urbana High at 31% and Wolfsville at 30%; everywhere else she was in the twenties. Incumbent Kelly Schulz placed second at 25%, running well in northern and eastern parts of the district and weakest in Green Valley/Kemptown, center of anti-development activism, as well as Brunswick/Burkittsville. In an outcome that surprised many observers (and both surprised and disappointed me), the third seat went not to Wendi Peters but to Afzali/Hough slate-mate David Vogt who ran ahead of Peters 19% to 15%. Peters, like Schulz, lagged in Green Valley/Kemptown (Afzali sent out a mailer attacking Peters as supposedly too friendly to development) as well as Brunswick/Burkittsville and other western parts of the district at a remove from her Mount Airy base. Vogt was strongest in Middletown and Brunswick. (Again, part of the district lies in Carroll County and will not be considered in this post.)

COUNTY EXECUTIVE. Blaine Young, chair of the current board of county commissioners, was always the presumptive Republican nominee, but the margin separating him from David Gray and Mark Sweadner (both of whose campaigns essentially functioned as “anyone but Blaine” efforts) was 53-35-12, narrower than many expected. Among places with noticeable Republican skepticism toward Young were Walkersville, where he got about 48% each at the middle and high school precincts, Monocacy Middle and Thomas Johnson Middle (50%), and in a class by themselves the development-furor precincts of Green Valley, Kemptown, and Urbana High (30-32%). Best showings for Young included Tuscarora, Spring Ridge, and Monocacy Elementary among close-in areas, as well as many outlying towns such as Knoxville, Emmitsburg, Creagerstown, Sabillasville, and Brunswick-Burkittsville.


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